The Canadiens start Jacob Fowler against the Predators after Sam Montembeault’s injury, shifting expectations at the Bell Centre.
Three games are too few to establish what either of these teams actually is.
They are enough to identify the problems already waiting for them.
The Predators arrive in Montreal after turning a 3-0 lead and later a 4-2 advantage into a 5-4 overtime loss in Toronto. The Canadiens are coming off a 6-4 home loss to Carolina in which an early 3-2 lead disappeared once the Hurricanes began controlling the middle of the game.
Both teams are 1-1-1.
Then Montreal’s goaltending plan changed.
Sam Montembeault was injured during practice Wednesday. Jacob Fowler was recalled from Laval and will make his first NHL start of the season Thursday night.
That does not automatically make Nashville the better team. It does make the original expectation around the matchup much harder to defend.
Fowler Changes the Calculation
Fowler is not an unknown in the literal sense.
He appeared in 17 NHL games last season, going 9-6-2 with a 2.43 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage. That is enough work to know Montreal is not simply throwing a prospect into an NHL crease for the first time.
It is still a meaningful change.
Fowler was in Laval on Wednesday. By Thursday night, he is being asked to start against Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and a Nashville group that just scored four times in Toronto.
The Canadiens do not yet know how long Montembeault will be unavailable. The team said Thursday that he was scheduled to see a doctor, with the length of his absence still undetermined.
That makes Thursday less about declaring Fowler a weakness and more about uncertainty arriving at the most influential position on the ice.
Montreal was already favored because of the lineup, home ice and the general expectation that this roster is further along than Nashville. The crease change narrows how confidently anyone can make that assumption for one night.
The Market Noticed
The movement around the game is useful because it shows how expectations changed once the available information changed.
Montreal opened around -200 at several books. By Thursday afternoon, the Canadiens had shortened substantially, with Nashville available at prices ranging from roughly the high +130s into the +160s depending on the sportsbook and timing.
The exact screen matters less here than the direction.
The Canadiens are still expected to win more often than the Predators. They are simply expected to do so by a much smaller margin than they were when the matchup opened.
That is a much more interesting way to use the number than reducing the game to whether Nashville is an attractive underdog. The market began with a substantial gap between the teams. New information forced that gap to shrink.
Nashville Has Its Own Problem
The Predators should not be allowed to turn Fowler’s start into evidence that their own first week has gone well.
Nashville did plenty right in Toronto. Stamkos scored twice. Nils Hoglander scored twice. Forsberg had two assists. Juuse Saros stopped 33 shots.
The Predators also led 3-0.
Then they led 4-2.
They lost 5-4.
The collapse was not one isolated bounce. Toronto repeatedly pushed Nashville backward after the Predators had established control, and penalties helped create the opening. The Leafs eventually tied the game in the third before Auston Matthews won it with 14 seconds left in overtime.
That is the part Nashville has to carry into Montreal.
A road underdog getting a more favorable goaltending matchup still has to survive the moment when the home team begins pushing.
Montreal Has Been Too Open
The Canadiens have their own version of that warning.
Montreal scored four against Carolina on Tuesday. Zachary Bolduc scored twice. Nick Suzuki had a goal and an assist. Juraj Slafkovsky also scored.
The Canadiens still lost 6-4.
They took a 3-2 lead into the first intermission and then watched Carolina score the next three goals. Montreal had enough finishing ability to stay around the game while never controlling it for long enough to protect the lead.
That problem becomes more important with Fowler starting.
The easiest way for Montreal to make its goaltending change irrelevant is to reduce how often the game asks Fowler to solve difficult second chances or broken defensive possessions. That means cleaner exits, fewer lost coverages around the crease and less time chasing after the first defensive play fails.
A young goalie does not need his team to play scared in front of him.
He does need it to stop manufacturing extra work.
Montreal Still Has the Matchups
The reason Montreal remains favored is not difficult to find.
The Canadiens can begin with Cole Caufield, Suzuki and Chris Kreider, then send out Slafkovsky with Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach. Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson give Martin St-Louis a legitimate top defensive pair, while Lane Hutson remains capable of turning a routine possession into an offensive-zone entry by himself.
The Bell Centre also gives St-Louis the last change.
That matters against a Nashville lineup whose most obvious threats are concentrated around veteran scoring pieces. Stamkos and O’Reilly are projected together. Forsberg gives the next group another elite finisher. Jonathan Marchessault remains another player who can punish one bad matchup.
Montreal can decide which defensive pair sees the most difficult version of that rotation.
Fowler changes the confidence attached to the matchup. He does not erase the rest of Montreal’s roster.
Saros Is Nashville’s Counter
If Fowler creates uncertainty at one end, Saros provides familiarity at the other.
He was excellent enough in Toronto to give Nashville every opportunity to protect the lead, including a stop on a three-on-none rush in overtime before Matthews eventually ended the game.
That remains Nashville’s clearest path in Montreal.
The Predators do not need to dominate possession for 60 minutes if Saros keeps the ordinary mistakes from becoming goals. They need to avoid turning those ordinary mistakes into waves.
Montreal has enough skill to make repeated defensive-zone possessions expensive. Caufield does not require many clean looks. Suzuki can manipulate coverage before making the final pass. Slafkovsky can create traffic around the crease.
If Nashville lets Montreal stay below the goal line and repeatedly recover pucks, even Saros eventually becomes the final layer of a problem that started somewhere else.
Special Teams Can Tilt It
Neither team should want to make this a special-teams contest.
Nashville already saw why in Toronto. Stamkos scored on the power play, but the Predators also gave the Leafs opportunities to work their way back into the game through their own man advantage.
Montreal scored a power-play goal against Carolina and also surrendered one while trying to protect its lead.
Three games of conversion percentages do not tell us much. The personnel does.
Stamkos, Forsberg and Roman Josi give Nashville too much one-shot ability to hand them repeated power plays. Caufield, Suzuki and Hutson create the same problem in the other direction.
Five-on-five gives both coaches more control over the matchups. Penalties hand that control to the best shooters on the other bench.
Three Games Are Not an Identity
It is tempting to make October results carry more meaning than they can.
Both teams are 1-1-1. Nashville just blew a three-goal lead. Montreal just allowed six at home. Neither fact is enough to declare a season broken.
They are useful because they identify the stress points.
Nashville has to prove it can manage a game after earning the lead. Montreal has to prove it can defend well enough that its scoring talent is not constantly being asked to erase defensive mistakes.
Fowler’s start adds another variable to the second question.
The Canadiens were originally expected to have a much larger advantage Thursday. The market has already reconsidered that assumption.
Now the teams have to show whether it reconsidered enough.
Montreal’s Edge Is Smaller Now
The Canadiens remain the deeper home team and have enough offensive talent to make Fowler’s job manageable.
Nashville arrives with the more established goaltender and a veteran forward group that has already demonstrated it can generate offense on the road. What the Predators have not demonstrated is that they can protect control once they have it.
That makes the original gap between these teams look too comfortable.
Prediction: Nashville Predators 4, Montreal Canadiens 3. Montreal should create enough offense to make Fowler’s season debut competitive, but Nashville’s advantage in established goaltending and its ability to finish give the Predators a plausible route through a game the market originally treated as much less balanced.
If Nashville gets another lead, the important part begins after it.
Sources
NHL, October 8, 2026 — Predators-Canadiens projected lineups and injury status | Montreal Canadiens, October 8, 2026 — Jacob Fowler confirmed for season debut | Montreal Canadiens, October 7, 2026 — Jacob Fowler recall and 2025-26 NHL statistics | Nashville Predators, October 8, 2026 — Predators-Canadiens game-day preview | NHL, October 6-8, 2026 — Predators-Maple Leafs and Hurricanes-Canadiens game recaps | VegasInsider / MoneyLine, October 8, 2026 — Predators-Canadiens line movement | Winners & Whiners, October 8, 2026 — matchup and market snapshot