The Senators remain heavy favorites despite three major absences, while the winless Flyers debut Michael Bunting in Ottawa.
Ottawa is missing its best defenseman, another regular defenseman and a top-nine forward.
The market has responded by becoming more confident in the Senators.
That may be the most useful way to understand Thursday night’s game against Philadelphia. Ottawa opened around -125 and has moved into roughly the -170 to -180 range despite Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub and Andre Burakovsky all being unavailable.
The Senators are not being priced as a team whose injuries have erased its advantage. They are being treated as a team whose opponent has created even more reasons for confidence.
Philadelphia arrives at Canadian Tire Centre 0-2-2, still looking for its first win and having been outscored 17-5. Michael Bunting will make his Flyers debut. Ottawa gets Linus Ullmark back in goal.
Those two changes pull in opposite directions.
Ottawa’s Blue Line Is Thin
The Senators’ injury list is not cosmetic.
Sanderson will miss his third consecutive game after leaving Ottawa’s season opener against Toronto. He skated on his own Thursday morning but did not join the full session.
Zub also remains out with a knee injury. He returned to practice in a regular jersey Thursday, which Travis Green called an encouraging step, but he is not ready to play.
That leaves Ottawa building its defense around Thomas Chabot and Jordan Spence, with Tyler Kleven, Carter Yakemchuk, Cameron Crotty and Nikolas Matinpalo filling the remaining spots.
The problem is not simply replacing Sanderson’s minutes. It is what happens to everybody else’s assignment when the player normally taking the hardest minutes disappears.
Chabot gets more responsibility. Younger defensemen receive tougher matchups. Puck-moving becomes less automatic, and one failed exit can leave the entire unit defending another 20 or 30 seconds.
Philadelphia needs to make those absences visible.
Ullmark Changes the Other Half
The Senators do get one important player back.
Ullmark is confirmed to start after leaving Monday’s 4-1 win in Boston following a collision. He stopped all 10 shots he faced before leaving and did not dress Tuesday in Detroit.
Ottawa lost that game 5-3 with Samuel Ersson in goal.
The return matters because the defense in front of Ullmark will be less experienced than Ottawa planned when the season began. An established goaltender can absorb some of the consequences when coverage breaks or a young defenseman loses a battle.
He cannot repair every mistake.
Philadelphia’s route into the game is to make Ottawa’s missing defenders create extra work for the goalie who just returned from his own injury scare.
The Flyers Have Been Getting Pushed Around
The problem with making Philadelphia’s injuries-and-price argument too aggressively is that the first four games have not looked like four coin flips that simply happened to go wrong.
The Flyers have been outshot and outchanced in all four games.
Monday’s loss in Tampa may have been the clearest example. Philadelphia stayed within one goal until late in the third largely because Dan Vladar stopped 32 of 35 shots.
The Lightning finished with a 36-14 advantage in shots.
Philadelphia generated only one goal and required its goaltender to keep the game respectable long enough for the offense to have a chance. Tampa eventually pulled away 4-1.
That is why Ottawa’s price has continued moving despite its injuries.
The market is not merely saying the Senators have more talent. It is saying Philadelphia has not yet produced enough sustained NHL-level control to make Ottawa’s missing pieces feel decisive.
Bunting Gives Philadelphia Something New
The Flyers responded to their opening week by adding Bunting.
The 31-year-old signed a one-year, $1.2 million contract Tuesday after remaining unsigned through the summer. He had 33 points in 74 games between Nashville and Dallas last season.
He is expected to begin on a line with Noah Cates and Noel Acciari.
Bunting does not solve an offense that has scored five times in four games by himself. He can help with one of Philadelphia’s more obvious problems.
The Flyers need somebody willing to live around the crease.
Ottawa’s weakened blue line creates an obvious invitation to get pucks behind the defense, force races toward the end boards and turn rebounds into second possessions. Bunting has built much of his career around making those areas uncomfortable.
Philadelphia should not need him to become a first-line scorer Thursday. It needs him to make the Senators defend a different kind of shift.
Ottawa’s Top Line Is Already Moving
The Senators’ offensive argument is much easier to find.
Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and William Eklund all had a goal and an assist Tuesday in Detroit. Stutzle also produced three points in Ottawa’s 4-1 win in Boston.
Thursday’s projected lineup puts Eklund with Stutzle and Batherson, followed by Ridly Greig with Dylan Cozens and Fabian Zetterlund.
That is where Philadelphia’s defensive problem begins.
The Flyers can focus their best matchup on Stutzle and still have another line capable of attacking off the rush. Ottawa can then send Shane Pinto and Claude Giroux over the boards against whatever is left.
Home ice lets Green control more of those matchups.
The Senators do not need their depleted defense to dominate if the forwards can keep enough of the game 180 feet from Ullmark.
The Price Has Become the Story
The opening expectation around this game was relatively modest.
Ottawa opened around -125. By Thursday afternoon, the Senators were being offered mostly between -166 and -180.
That movement is notable because the news cycle did not become cleaner for Ottawa. Sanderson remained out. Zub remained out. Burakovsky remained out.
The strongest piece of positive information was Ullmark’s return.
The rest of the move appears to reflect confidence in the matchup itself.
Philadelphia has not won. Its offense has struggled. Opponents have controlled the puck for long stretches. Ottawa, meanwhile, won its first two games before losing in Detroit and now plays its home opener.
The expectation gap has therefore widened rather than narrowed.
Thursday is a useful test of whether the first week justified that much movement.
Philadelphia Needs the Game Smaller
The Flyers should not want to trade rushes with Ottawa.
Their best path is to turn the game into work.
Get pucks behind Ottawa’s defense. Force the replacement pairs to turn. Make Chabot play extended shifts. Put Bunting at the crease. Let Konecny, Michkov and Tippett attack second possessions instead of trying to generate every chance through a clean entry.
The projected Philadelphia lineup has enough talent to make that uncomfortable. Konecny remains with Sean Couturier. Trevor Zegras centers Tippett. Michkov gets another young skilled player in Denver Barkey.
What Philadelphia has not done is connect those pieces for long enough.
A wide-open game rewards the team that has already shown it can create multiple dangerous lines.
A slower game asks more of Ottawa’s depleted defense.
Four Games Are Still Four Games
The Flyers’ 0-2-2 record is ugly.
It is also four games.
Philadelphia should not be treated as though a full season has already established it as one of the league’s worst teams. Ottawa should not be treated as though a 2-1 start proves every offseason decision worked.
The early games are useful because they show where pressure is accumulating.
Philadelphia needs to create more offense without asking its goalies to carry 35-shot nights. Ottawa needs to survive without the defensive structure it expected to have behind its forwards.
The market has decided the first problem is more important.
The Flyers get 60 minutes to test that assumption.
Ottawa May Be Trusted Too Much
The Senators deserve to be favored.
They have the better early results, the more productive top six and the confirmed starting goaltender. Philadelphia has spent four games chasing play and now walks into Ottawa still searching for its first win.
The question is whether those advantages justify an expectation that has grown this aggressively while Ottawa’s defense remains depleted.
Sanderson is not a minor absence. Neither is Zub. Bunting gives Philadelphia one more player capable of turning a defensive-zone retrieval into a fight around the net.
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers 3, Ottawa Senators 2. Ottawa is the more complete team on paper, but its current defensive personnel makes the widening expectation gap difficult to accept without qualification. If Philadelphia can make this a forecheck-and-retrieval game rather than a transition game, the Flyers have a path to their first win.
The market is asking Ottawa to look considerably better than Philadelphia Thursday night.
The missing blue line gives the Flyers somewhere to test that confidence.
Sources
NHL, October 8, 2026 — Flyers-Senators projected lineups and injury status | Ottawa Senators, October 8, 2026 — Linus Ullmark confirmed for home opener | Philadelphia Flyers, October 7-8, 2026 — Michael Bunting signing and game-day preview | NHL, October 6-8, 2026 — Senators-Red Wings and Flyers-Lightning recaps | VegasInsider, October 8, 2026 — Flyers-Senators line movement | Winners & Whiners, October 8, 2026 — matchup and market snapshot