Winnipeg has spent the first week building a new identity around defending. Colorado arrives Wednesday to find out how much of it survives contact with the league’s hottest offense.
The Jets have taken five of six available points without Connor Hellebuyck, allowing only four goals across consecutive wins over Detroit and Pittsburgh. For a team forced to rebuild its goaltending plan almost overnight, that is about as clean a start as Scott Arniel could have asked for.
Colorado presents a different problem.
The Avalanche have scored 14 goals in two games, tying the franchise record set by the 1992-93 Quebec Nordiques. They followed an 8-4 opener with a 6-1 dismantling of St. Louis that looked considerably more sustainable because the second game required less chaos. Colorado controlled the puck, attacked off turnovers and kept adding pressure after the Blues survived the first chance.
Winnipeg has established that it can defend ordinary offensive pressure. Wednesday asks whether it can survive pressure that keeps restarting.
Colorado’s 14 Goals Are Not Just an Early Shooting Binge
Two games are not enough to establish anything permanent, and Colorado is obviously not going to average seven goals for an entire season. The important part of the opening week is how many different mechanisms have produced the offense.
Nathan MacKinnon has five points. Artturi Lehkonen has three goals. Martin Necas has four points. Brock Nelson and Nicolas Roy have three each. Cale Makar has already added three points from the blue line.
That distribution matters because it prevents Winnipeg from treating Wednesday like a single-line problem. MacKinnon remains the player most capable of turning one neutral-zone mistake into a goal before the structure can reset, but Colorado no longer needs every dangerous possession to begin with him.
The Avalanche can separate MacKinnon from Nelson and Nazem Kadri, use Gabriel Landeskog in different matchups and then send Makar or Devon Toews into the next wave. A defensive group can handle the first entry correctly and still find itself under pressure because Colorado has enough skill behind the puck to recover possession rather than retreat.
That is the version of Colorado Winnipeg has to slow. Not seven goals per game. Repeated possessions that make seven goals possible.
Winnipeg Has Made Defending the Replacement for Hellebuyck
The biggest story around Winnipeg remains the player who is not there.
Hellebuyck publicly confirmed in August that he had requested a trade, then did not report for training camp and was suspended by the Jets. For more than a decade, Winnipeg could build large parts of its defensive identity around the knowledge that one of the league’s best goalies was behind whatever happened in front of him.
That luxury is gone for now.
Arniel’s response has been to make the defensive layer in front of the crease more important. After Monday’s 3-2 win in Pittsburgh, he described defending as the identity established from the first day of camp. The opening results support him. Winnipeg has allowed two goals in each of its last two games and has repeatedly kept opponents from turning possession into long sequences around its net.
Colorado is the first opponent capable of exposing whether that identity is already strong or simply early.
Skinner and Stevenson Have Given Winnipeg a Chance to Breathe
Stuart Skinner has handled two of Winnipeg’s first three games and enters Wednesday 1-0-1 with a .909 save percentage. Clay Stevenson made his first Jets start in Pittsburgh and stopped 29 of 31 shots in a 3-2 win.
Neither goalie has to recreate Hellebuyck’s peak for Winnipeg to remain competitive. The Jets need competent goaltending behind a structure that reduces the number of impossible saves required.
That arrangement has worked through three games. Colorado will stress it differently because the Avalanche do not simply wait for a defensive breakdown near the crease. They can create the breakdown earlier, through the neutral zone or at the offensive blue line, then attack before Winnipeg has all five skaters organized below the puck.
The goalie question therefore starts farther from the net than it appears. If Winnipeg gives Colorado clean entries and repeated second possessions, Skinner or Stevenson eventually becomes the last player trying to solve a problem created 100 feet earlier.
The First Pass May Decide More Than the First Save
Winnipeg’s most important job Wednesday may be getting the puck out of its own end before Colorado’s forecheck gets a second chance.
The Avalanche are dangerous off the rush, but the more exhausting part of their offense comes after the rush fails. Their defensemen remain active high in the zone, their forwards recover pucks quickly and MacKinnon can reappear in a completely different part of the ice before the defending team has changed.
Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo therefore need the first exit to end the shift. Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg face the same problem. A safe chip that concedes possession may only invite the next wave, while an ambitious pass through the middle can become an immediate Colorado counterattack if it misses.
There is no perfect answer. Winnipeg has to execute the difficult one often enough that the Avalanche spend some of the night retrieving the puck themselves.
Kyle Connor Gives Winnipeg a Way to Punish Aggression
The Jets are not simply waiting to survive.
Kyle Connor has three goals and five points through three games. Cole Perfetti also has five points, including two goals, while Morrissey has three assists from the back end.
That is enough skill to punish Colorado if the Avalanche become too aggressive about keeping possession alive. Makar and the rest of Colorado’s defense are dangerous partly because they are willing to stay involved after the initial attack. The risk is what happens when Winnipeg wins the puck cleanly and suddenly has Connor accelerating into space behind them.
The Jets do not want a track meet. They do want the Avalanche to believe every aggressive pinch carries consequences.
Connor is the player most capable of creating that threat. Winnipeg can spend long stretches defending and still change the game if one clean exit sends him through the neutral zone with speed.
Colorado’s Second Game Was More Important Than Its First
The 8-4 opening win announced Colorado’s offensive ceiling. The 6-1 win over St. Louis said more about what the Avalanche want to become.
Jared Bednar was particularly pleased with the way Colorado improved its rush coverage, closed defensive-zone plays faster and kept its own aggression without giving the Blues the same space going the other way. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 25 of 26 shots while the skaters in front of him made the game progressively easier.
That balance is what makes Colorado more difficult than a team simply running hot offensively. The Avalanche were already one of the NHL’s strongest defensive teams last season, allowing the fewest goals in the league. If the new forward combinations preserve that structure while adding this much scoring depth, the offense does not have to carry every night by itself.
Winnipeg’s best chance comes from forcing Colorado back toward the opener: more trading chances, more uncomfortable defensive transitions and less time spent establishing possession around the Jets’ zone.
Colorado Already Knows How to Travel
Wednesday is Colorado’s first road game of the season, but the location does not create the kind of uncertainty it would for many teams.
The Avalanche won 29 road games last season, the most in the NHL. Their style travels because it does not depend entirely on using the last change to manufacture favorable matchups. MacKinnon can create against top competition. Makar can drive possession against almost anyone. The depth behind them gives Bednar several lines capable of beginning a shift in defensive territory and ending it around the opposing net.
Arniel still gets an advantage from having last change at Canada Life Centre. He can choose where Adam Lowry’s line appears, protect younger players when possible and try to create the most favorable defensive pairings against MacKinnon.
The problem is that Colorado can move its offense around. Winnipeg may win the first matchup decision and still have to solve the next line.
The Market Is Charging for Colorado’s Ceiling
Colorado is being treated as a substantial road favorite, generally around -175 to -178 Wednesday afternoon, with Winnipeg roughly +146 to +150. The total sits at 6.5.
That is a large price for a road team playing an opponent that has earned five of six possible points. It is also understandable after Colorado scored 14 goals in two games and showed last season that leaving Denver did very little to reduce its effectiveness.
The more interesting number is the puck line. Colorado -1.5 is available around +132 to +136, reflecting the idea that if the Avalanche are going to justify such a heavy moneyline, there is a reasonable chance the game eventually creates separation rather than ending with a one-goal escape.
Empty-net situations contribute to that possibility, but the larger case comes from Colorado’s ability to turn one controlled period into several goals before the opponent can reset. Winnipeg’s first two victories were both 3-2. The Jets have demonstrated that they can protect a close game. Colorado has spent its opening week trying to prevent games from staying close.
Winnipeg’s New Identity Gets Its First Serious Audit
The Jets could hardly have asked for better early evidence that life without Hellebuyck does not have to become an immediate collapse.
Skinner has given them functional goaltending. Stevenson gave them more than that in Pittsburgh. Connor and Perfetti have supplied enough offense, and the team in front of the goalies has defended well enough to make three goals sufficient on consecutive nights.
Colorado changes the standard.
The Avalanche do not need Winnipeg to defend badly for 60 minutes. They need one stretch where the Jets fail to clear the zone, lose a rush assignment or allow MacKinnon to attack a defender with speed. Makar and the second wave can turn that mistake into another possession before Winnipeg has recovered from the first.
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 2. Winnipeg’s defensive start deserves more respect than the heavy market suggests, and Canada Life Centre should make Colorado work harder than either Los Angeles or St. Louis did. But the Avalanche have too many ways to restart an attack, and the Jets’ new defensive identity is being asked to pass its hardest test before it is fully formed.
If Winnipeg keeps this game at 2-2 deep into the third, the first week begins to look like something real.
If Colorado creates separation again, the lesson will be simpler: defending well against everyone else is not yet the same thing as defending the Avalanche.
Sources
Colorado Avalanche, October 7, 2026 — Avalanche-Jets game preview and team statistics | Winnipeg Jets, October 7, 2026 — Avalanche at Jets gameday preview | NHL, September 2026 — Connor Hellebuyck trade request and suspension | NHL, October 2026 — Avalanche-Jets game center and early-season player/goaltender statistics | NHL, September 2026 — Colorado season preview and 2025-26 team context